Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 41.25%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 28.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.57%) and 2-1 (7.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.61%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gimnasia in this match.