Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.49%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Tigre win was 0-1 (12.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.