Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.