Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 37.1%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.32%) and 1-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Tigre win was 1-0 (12.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.