Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 49.37%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 21.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for an Atletico Tucuman win it was 0-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.