Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 43.01%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 26.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 2-1 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.59%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.