Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Tigre win was 1-0 (11.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.