Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 62.59%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Juventud had a probability of 14.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.32%) and 1-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Juventud win it was 1-0 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.