Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for Juventud had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.41%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Juventud win was 0-1 (12.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro would win this match.