Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 39.19%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 30.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.99%) and 1-2 (7.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.48%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Plaza Colonia in this match.