Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.66%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.