Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.85%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 25.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.