Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.