Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 4
Sep 21, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Defensor

Nacional
1 - 1
Defensor

Polenta (67')
Polenta (74')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Spinelli (26')
De Los Santos (68'), Alvarez (83'), Dawson (90+5')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Defensor Sporting.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Wanderers 0-2 Nacional
Sunday, September 15 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Defensor Sporting

All competitions
Last Game: Defensor 1-2 Racing
Friday, September 13 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawDefensor Sporting
43.4% (-0.115 -0.12)27.63%28.96% (0.112 0.11)
Both teams to score 47.06% (0.052 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.68% (0.036999999999999 0.04)58.32% (-0.038999999999994 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.06% (0.029 0.03)78.94% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.35% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)26.65% (0.038999999999998 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.11% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)61.89% (0.053999999999995 0.05)
Defensor Sporting Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.16% (0.10600000000001 0.11)35.83% (-0.108 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.39% (0.11 0.11)72.61% (-0.11199999999999 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 43.4%
    Defensor Sporting 28.96%
    Draw 27.63%
NacionalDrawDefensor Sporting
1-0 @ 12.62% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-1 @ 8.57% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.35% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.78% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.68% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.0039999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 1.22% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2%
Total : 43.4%
1-1 @ 12.96% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.55% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.4% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.63%
0-1 @ 9.8% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.65% (0.022 0.02)
0-2 @ 5.03% (0.022 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.28% (0.014 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.72% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.5% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 28.96%

Head to Head
Mar 10, 2024 10.30pm
Gameweek 4
Defensor
3-3
Nacional
Rivero (22'), Mansilla (52'), Duarte (54')
Bernal (24'), Mansilla (52'), Cuello (54'), Elizari (72'), De Los Santos (90+4')
Pereyra (10'), Carneiro (59' pen.), Santander (86')
Oliva (81'), Santander (88')
Dec 4, 2023 11.30pm
Gameweek 14
Nacional
1-0
Defensor
Rodriguez (81')
Lozano (33'), Chagas (45'), Chagas (45+1'), Rodriguez (74')
Rodriguez (82')

Martinez (29'), De Los Santos (44'), Bernal (65')
May 7, 2023 10pm
Gameweek 14
Defensor
2-2
Nacional
Candido (38' og.), Barcia (70')
Fagundez (17'), Ramirez (53' pen.)
Oct 8, 2022 11.30pm
Gameweek 12
Nacional
1-1
Defensor
Trezza (34')
Elizari (46')
Jun 13, 2022 11.30pm
Gameweek 1
Defensor
0-1
Nacional

Rocha (63')
Ramirez (76')
Carballo (33'), Lozano (90+4')