Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 46.12%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 27.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.