Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 41.8%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boston River in this match.