Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.58%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 29.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.23%) and 1-2 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.36%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.