Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 58.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.58%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Defensor Sporting in this match.