/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F34%2Fbotlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F29%2Fpenlog_1.png)
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Luiz Henrique
13'
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Luiz Henrique
13'
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Igor Jesus
36'
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Igor Jesus
36'
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Jefferson Savarino
51'
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Jefferson Savarino
51'
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Alexander Barboza
56'
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Alexander Barboza
56'
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Jefferson Savarino
60'
-
Jefferson Savarino
60'
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Gregore
61'
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Gregore
61'
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Artur Jorge
61'
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Artur Jorge
62'
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Luiz Henrique
74'
-
Luiz Henrique
74'
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Igor Jesus
79'
-
Igor Jesus
79'
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Rodrigo Perez
36'
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Rodrigo Perez
36'
Botafogo vs Penarol - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F43%2Fcarlos-alberto.jpeg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 62.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
Result
Botafogo
62.17%
▼
(-0.92)
Draw
22.62%
▲
(+0.32)
Penarol
15.21%
▲
(+0.60)
Both Teams to Score:
43.95%
▲
(+0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5
46.61%
▼
(-0.16)
Under 2.5
53.38%
▲
(+0.16)
Over 3.5
25.08%
▼
(-0.13)
Under 3.5
74.92%
▲
(+0.13)
Over 4.5
11.41%
▼
(-0.09)
Under 4.5
88.59%
▲
(+0.09)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5
83.28%
▼
(-0.37)
Under 0.5
16.71%
▲
(+0.37)
Over 1.5
53.38%
▼
(-0.66)
Under 1.5
46.61%
▲
(+0.66)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5
52.77%
▲
(+0.77)
Under 0.5
47.23%
▼
(-0.77)
Over 1.5
17.34%
▲
(+0.57)
Under 1.5
82.66%
▼
(-0.57)
Score analysis
Botafogo
62.16%
Draw
22.61%
Penarol
15.21%
Botafogo
1-0
@
14.12%
▼
(-0.10)
2-0 @ 12.63% ▼ (-0.23)
2-1 @ 9.48% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 7.53% ▼ (-0.24)
3-1 @ 5.65% ▼ (-0.06)
4-0 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.15)
4-1 @ 2.53% ▼ (-0.06)
3-2 @ 2.12% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 1.21% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 62.16%
2-0 @ 12.63% ▼ (-0.23)
2-1 @ 9.48% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 7.53% ▼ (-0.24)
3-1 @ 5.65% ▼ (-0.06)
4-0 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.15)
4-1 @ 2.53% ▼ (-0.06)
3-2 @ 2.12% ▲ (+0.03)
5-0 @ 1.21% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 3.54%
Total : 62.16%
Draw
1-1
@
10.59%
▲
(+0.17)
0-0 @ 7.89% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 3.55% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 22.61%
0-0 @ 7.89% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 3.55% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 22.61%
Penarol
0-1
@
5.92%
▲
(+0.17)
1-2 @ 3.97% ▲ (+0.15)
0-2 @ 2.22% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 15.21%
1-2 @ 3.97% ▲ (+0.15)
0-2 @ 2.22% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 15.21%