Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 51.75%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.