Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Sep 19, 2024 at 11pm UK

Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho

Flamengo
0 - 1
Penarol

(Penarol win 1-0 on aggregate)

Lima (87')
Plata (43'), Pulgar (53')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Cabrera (13')
Garcia (29'), Mendez (32'), Aguerre (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Flamengo and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Flamengo

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Flamengo 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Penarol

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Penarol 4-0 Rampla
Saturday, September 14 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 71.24%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 10.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.45%) and 3-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Flamengo	Draw	Penarol
71.24% ( -1.76)	18.19% ( 0.96)	10.57% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 44.2% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.33% (

-1.97)

45.66% (

1.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.01% (

-1.9)

67.99% (

1.89)

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.49% (

-1)

11.51% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.61% (

-2.21)

36.39% (

2.2)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.95% (

0.3)

50.05% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.3% (

0.21)

84.69% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Flamengo 71.23%

Penarol 10.57%

Draw 18.19%

Flamengo	Draw	Penarol
2-0 @ 13.46% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.53) 3-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.2) 4-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.44) 4-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.29) 5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.29% Total : 71.23%	1-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.44) 0-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.59% Total : 18.19%	0-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.22% Total : 10.57%