Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 64.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 14.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.08%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.9%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.