Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Sep 12, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Arena de Baixada
Vasco da Gama

Athletico PR
2 - 1
Vasco

Cuello (25', 25'), Zapelli (33', 33')
Rocha (26'), Rocha (26'), Madson (28'), Madson (28'), Zapelli (48'), Zapelli (48'), Mastriani (90+2'), Mastriani (90+2')
FT(HT: 4-2)
Vegetti (45+1', 45+1')
Sforza (30'), Sforza (30'), Souza (69'), Souza (69')
Rayan (42'), Rayan (42')
Vasco win 5-4 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa do Brasil clash between Athletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Athletico PR 0-2 Palmeiras
Sunday, September 1 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Vitoria 0-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 1 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 50.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 24.49%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico ParanaenseDrawVasco da Gama
50.45% (0.012 0.01)25.06% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)24.49% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
Both teams to score 51.13%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.62% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)51.38% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.8% (0.004999999999999 0)73.2% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.62% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)20.38% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.21% (0.010999999999996 0.01)52.79% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Vasco da Gama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.21% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)35.79% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.44% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)72.56% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Score Analysis
    Athletico Paranaense 50.45%
    Vasco da Gama 24.49%
    Draw 25.06%
Athletico ParanaenseDrawVasco da Gama
1-0 @ 11.6%
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 5.03% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.89% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.58%
4-1 @ 2% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.95% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.03%
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 50.45%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 7.29% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-2 @ 4.87%
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 25.06%
0-1 @ 7.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-2 @ 6.12% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 3.85% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.1%
2-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 24.49%

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Vasco

Athletico Paranaense
30.8%
Draw
33.3%
Vasco da Gama
35.9%
39
Head to Head
Aug 30, 2024 12am
Quarter-Finals 1st Leg
Vasco
2-1
Athletico PR
Luis Rodriguez (80'), Moura (90+3')
Vegetti (30'), Victor (35')
Victor (90+7')
Christian (32')
Pontes Moreira (25'), Heleno (36'), Christian (39'), Canobbio (51')
Di Yorio (90+7')
Aug 27, 2024 1am
Gameweek 24
Vasco
2-1
Athletico PR
Rodriguez (68'), Vegetti (86')
Carvalho (48')
Gabriel (24')
Heleno (15'), Victor Machado Cruz (28'), Varini Di Zioli (90+5')
Fernando (90+7')
May 5, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 5
Athletico PR
1-0
Vasco
Erick (26')
Fernandinho (58')

Moura (16')
Nov 25, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 35
Athletico PR
0-0
Vasco
Cuello (45+2')
Maicon (54'), Pele (62'), Gomes (75'), Bambu (90+1')
Jul 23, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 16
Vasco
0-2
Athletico PR

Vitor Geminiano Cavalieri (35'), Jair (65')
Christian (71'), Bueno (80' pen.)
Carvalho (36'), Khellven (41'), Fernandinho (58'), Esquivel (70')
Ivaldo (90+5')
> Preview
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