Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
Criciuma	Draw	Vasco da Gama
33.95% ( 0.35)	27.08% ( 0)	38.96% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 50.43% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.12% (

0.05)

54.88% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.83% (

0.04)

76.17% (

-0.04)

Criciuma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.51% (

0.25)

30.49% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.3% (

0.3)

66.7% (

-0.3)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.55% (

-0.17)

27.45% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.06% (

-0.22)

62.94% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Criciuma 33.95%

Vasco da Gama 38.96%

Draw 27.08%

Criciuma	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.63% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.16% Total : 33.95%	1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 8.37% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 27.08%	0-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.99% Total : 38.96%