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Copa Libertadores

Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 14, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
4 - 0
The Strongest

Fernandez (9'), Silvera (16'), Baez (36'), Batista (72')
Darias (27')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Jusino (59'), Ramallo (71'), Ortega (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and The Strongest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

The Strongest

All competitions
Last Game: Gremio 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, May 29 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawThe Strongest
49.46% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)25.77%24.76% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.3% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.08% (0.009999999999998 0.01)53.92% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.63% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)75.37% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)21.83% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.95% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)55.05% (0.0020000000000024 0)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.06% (0.019999999999996 0.02)36.94% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.27% (0.018000000000001 0.02)73.73% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 49.46%
    The Strongest 24.76%
    Draw 25.77%
PenarolDrawThe Strongest
1-0 @ 12.27%
2-0 @ 9.34% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3%
3-0 @ 4.74% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 4.72%
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.8% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.8%
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 49.46%
1-1 @ 12.22%
0-0 @ 8.06% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
2-2 @ 4.63% (0.0020000000000007 0)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 25.77%
0-1 @ 8.03% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 6.09% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-2 @ 4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 2.02% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.33% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 24.76%

How you voted: Penarol vs The Strongest

Penarol
95.7%
Draw
4.3%
The Strongest
0.0%
23
Head to Head
May 17, 2018 11.15pm
-
Penarol
2-0
The Strongest
Palacios (20'), Rodriguez (37' pen.)
Martinez (56')
Martinez (66')

Ballivian (27'), Jara (57')
Mar 15, 2018 10.15pm
-
The Strongest
1-0
Penarol
Carcelen (20')
Carcelen (53'), Campos (72'), Martelli (94')

Palacios (13'), Rojo (32'), Maldonado (53')