Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.