Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 51.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 20.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (8.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.