Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 38.06%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boston River in this match.