Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.