Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 59.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.56%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.56%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.