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Copa Libertadores

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Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 19, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Nilton Santos
Sao Paulo

Botafogo
0 - 0
Sao Paulo


Henrique (30'), Henrique (30'), Bastos (72'), Bastos (72')
FT

Rafinha (82'), Rafinha (82'), Arboleda (90+4'), Arboleda (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Botafogo and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Botafogo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Botafogo 2-1 Corinthians
Sunday, September 15 at 1am in Brasileiro

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cruzeiro 0-1 Sao Paulo
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 45.38%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 26.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.

Result
BotafogoDrawSao Paulo
45.38% (0.314 0.31)27.84% (-0.069000000000003 -0.07)26.77% (-0.241 -0.24)
Both teams to score 45.19% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
39.95% (0.117 0.12)60.05% (-0.112 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.72% (0.088999999999999 0.09)80.28% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.56% (0.21599999999999 0.22)26.43% (-0.211 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.39% (0.283 0.28)61.6% (-0.279 -0.28)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.42% (-0.139 -0.14)38.57% (0.144 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.68% (-0.134 -0.13)75.32% (0.13799999999999 0.14)
Score Analysis
    Botafogo 45.38%
    Sao Paulo 26.77%
    Draw 27.83%
BotafogoDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 13.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 9.03% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 8.6% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 4% (0.055 0.06)
3-1 @ 3.81% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.82% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.33% (0.026 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.27% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 45.38%
1-1 @ 12.92% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 10.19% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.1%
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 27.83%
0-1 @ 9.71% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.16% (-0.037 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.63% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.95% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.47% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.3% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 26.77%

How you voted: Botafogo vs Sao Paulo

Botafogo
92.0%
Draw
8.0%
Sao Paulo
0.0%
25
Head to Head
Jul 24, 2024 11.30pm
Gameweek 19
Sao Paulo
2-2
Botafogo
Moura (6' pen.), Ferreira (60')
Rafinha (24'), Franco (45+5'), Moura (51'), Cuiabano (63'), Luciano (76')
Tiquinho (11' pen.), Cuiabano (22')
Gregore (39'), Freitas (59'), Jorge (62'), Freitas (63')
> Preview
Jul 24, 2024 11.30pm
Gameweek 19
Sao Paulo
2-2
Botafogo
Moura (6' pen.), Ferreira (60')
Rafinha (24'), Franco (45+5'), Moura (51'), Cuiabano (63'), Luciano (76')
Tiquinho (11' pen.), Cuiabano (22')
Gregore (39'), Freitas (59'), Jorge (62'), Freitas (63')
> Preview
Aug 19, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 20
Sao Paulo
0-0
Botafogo
Luciano (50'), Welington (53'), Diego (90+1'), Rafinha (90+3')
Di Placido (2'), Tche (61')
Apr 15, 2023 10.30pm
Gameweek 1
Botafogo
2-1
Sao Paulo
Tiquinho (4'), Eduardo (88')
Calleri (15')
Oct 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 31
Sao Paulo
0-1
Botafogo
Tiquinho (90' pen.)