Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg

Oct 31, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Centenario

Penarol
3 - 1
Botafogo

(Botafogo win 6-3 on aggregate)

Baez (31', 31', 66', 66'), Batista (89', 89')
Sosa (86'), Sosa (86')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Almada (88', 88')
Bastos (28'), Bastos (28'), Martins (45+4'), Martins (45+4'), Vitinho (49'), Vitinho (49'), Ponte (69'), Ponte (69'), Almada (71'), Almada (71')
Ponte (69'), Ponte (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Botafogo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Botafogo 5-0 Penarol
Thursday, October 24 at 1.45am in Copa Libertadores

Goals
for

Botafogo

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Bragantino 0-1 Botafogo
Saturday, October 26 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.35%. A draw had a probability of 31.3% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.06%) and 1-2 (7.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.01%), while for a Penarol win it was 1-0 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Botafogo
26.3% ( 0.11)	31.35% ( 0.6)	42.35% ( -0.71)

Both teams to score 36.64% (

-1.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

29.53% (

-1.5)

70.47% (

1.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

12.47% (

-0.97)

87.53% (

0.97)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.96% (

-0.81)

45.04% (

0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.03% (

-0.65)

80.97% (

0.65)

Botafogo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.67% (

-1.23)

33.33% (

1.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.05% (

-1.37)

69.95% (

1.37)

Score Analysis

Penarol 26.3%

Botafogo 42.35%

Draw 31.34%

Penarol	Draw	Botafogo
1-0 @ 11.97% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.64% Total : 26.3%	0-0 @ 15.01% ( 0.81) 1-1 @ 13.15% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.3% Total : 31.34%	0-1 @ 16.49% ( 0.36) 0-2 @ 9.06% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.64% Total : 42.35%