Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 58.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 16.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.95%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.34%), while for a Liverpool win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.