Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 63.47%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 13.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (5.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.