Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Maldonado would win this match.