Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 42.55%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 28.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.19%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.