Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.89%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.