Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 64.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 12.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.09%) and 1-2 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.21%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.