Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 65.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Miramar Misiones had a probability of 12.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.66%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Miramar Misiones win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.