Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 13.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.85%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.09%).