Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 13.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.85%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.09%).

Result
Penarol	Draw	Cerro
63.25% ( 0.27)	23.14% ( -0.13)	13.62% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 39.1% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.1% (

0.19)

57.9% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.39% (

0.15)

78.61% (

-0.15)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.04% (

0.17)

17.96% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.21% (

0.29)

48.79% (

-0.29)

Cerro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.66% (

-0.11)

52.34% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.77% (

-0.07)

86.23% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Penarol 63.24%

Cerro 13.62%

Draw 23.13%

Penarol	Draw	Cerro
1-0 @ 16.14% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 13.85% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.77% Total : 63.24%	1-1 @ 10.44% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.4% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.39% Total : 23.13%	0-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.18% Total : 13.62%