Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 45.79%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 24.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.72%) and 1-2 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo City Torque would win this match.