Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 35.9%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.17%) and 2-1 (6.8%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (13.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro would win this match.