Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 47.38%. A draw had a probability of 30.7% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 21.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.2%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.