Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 15

May 18, 2025 at 12am UK

Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
2 - 1
Torque

Fernandez (4' pen., 4' pen., 71', 71')
Cabrera (41'), Cabrera (41'), Fernandez (87'), Fernandez (87')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Villa (19', 19')
Villa (52'), Villa (52'), Costa (87'), Costa (87')
Andrade (45'), Andrade (45')

Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Penarol and Montevideo City Torque.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions

Uruguayan Primera Division

Last Game: Penarol 3-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, May 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Goals
for

Montevideo City Torque

All competitions

Last Game: Torque 2-3 Progreso
Sunday, May 4 at 2.45pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 23.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Montevideo City Torque
50.7% ( -0.12)	25.73% ( 0.13)	23.56% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 48.22% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.27% (

-0.5)

54.73% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.95% (

-0.41)

76.05% (

0.41)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.38% (

-0.25)

21.62% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.26% (

-0.39)

54.73% (

0.39)

Montevideo City Torque Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.52% (

-0.29)

38.48% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.77% (

-0.28)

75.23% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Penarol 50.7%

Montevideo City Torque 23.56%

Draw 25.72%

Penarol	Draw	Montevideo City Torque
1-0 @ 12.74% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 9.76% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.15% Total : 50.7%	1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.72%	0-1 @ 7.95% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.54% Total : 23.56%