Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 49.26%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 24.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.