Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 54.67%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 18.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.