Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 36.03%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 31.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.2%) and 2-1 (6.82%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (13.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.