Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg

Feb 12, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Centenario

Defensor
0 - 2
Monagas

Estiven Prieto Machado (45+2'), Estiven Prieto Machado (45+2'), Barco (62'), Barco (62'), De Los Santos (75'), De Los Santos (75'), Soria (90+2'), Soria (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Abdiel Rodriguez Mena (34', 34'), Romero (61', 61')
Basante (21'), Basante (21'), Romero (86'), Romero (86')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Defensor Sporting and Monagas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Defensor Sporting

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: River Plate 0-1 Defensor
Saturday, February 8 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Monagas

All competitions

Last Game: Monagas 2-0 Defensor
Wednesday, February 5 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Monagas had a probability of 29.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Monagas win was 0-1 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
Defensor Sporting	Draw	Monagas
44.04% ( -0.29)	26.49% ( 0.32)	29.47% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 50.65% (

-0.99)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.15% (

-1.27)

53.85% (

1.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.68% (

-1.08)

75.32% (

1.08)

Defensor Sporting Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.69% (

-0.7)

24.31% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.31% (

-1)

58.69% (

Monagas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.92% (

-0.68)

33.08% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.33% (

-0.76)

69.67% (

0.77)

Score Analysis

Defensor Sporting 44.04%

Monagas 29.47%

Draw 26.49%

Defensor Sporting	Draw	Monagas
1-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.19% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.6% Total : 44.04%	1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.49%	0-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.5% Total : 29.47%