Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 66.33%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Monagas had a probability of 12.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.48%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for a Monagas win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.