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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 58.26%. A draw had a probability of 23.06% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%) , while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Colchester United | Draw | Newport County |
| 58.26% ( | 23.06% ( | 18.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.32% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.2% ( | 49.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.2% ( | 71.8% ( |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.19% ( | 16.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.22% ( | 46.77% ( |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.28% ( | 40.71% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.7% ( | 77.3% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Colchester United | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 12.2% ( 2-0 @ 10.88% ( 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 3-0 @ 6.47% ( 3-1 @ 5.81% ( 4-0 @ 2.89% ( 3-2 @ 2.61% ( 4-1 @ 2.59% ( 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 5-0 @ 1.03% ( 5-1 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 1.91% Total : 58.26% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 2-2 @ 4.39% ( Other @ 0.87% Total : 23.06% | 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 1-2 @ 4.93% ( 0-2 @ 2.76% ( 1-3 @ 1.48% ( 2-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 18.67% |